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South China Morning Post Deeper fears Greg Torode Chinese officials and analysts talk publicly and privately about
their fears that the US is attempting to contain a rising China
through its re-engagement with the region. US officials and
analysts, meanwhile, talk publicly and privately about the need to
"shape" the rise of China. It is a debate only set to intensify after a bruising few days for China's regional diplomacy. Yet again, issues of maritime security, specifically the South China Sea, have dominated at a regional forum - over Beijing's objections. For two years now, it has been ever more apparent that China cannot, from the outside, influence the agenda of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in the way it once could, either during Asean internal discussions or at broader events, such as the East Asia Summit at the weekend. For all the sense of inevitability surrounding the way things played out, there was one significant shift - the confirmation from US President Barack Obama that US marines will be based in Darwin starting next year. Together with evolving US plans to base new fast shallow-water ships in Singapore, the deployment shifts rhetoric over maritime security into hard strategic reality. And Beijing must know that militaries move on a far longer time scale than simple US presidential politics. Those US marines are likely to remain in Australia beyond the Obama years. Expect, then, lots more mainland heat in the coming months about US plots to turn the region against China. Such rhetoric will contain a kernel of truth - the US has undoubtedly seen opportunity in the regional situation. But, ultimately, such rhetoric will risk obscuring other troubling facts. The US, as this column has noted before, is not acting in isolation. Washington has been hearing a chorus of regional concern for more than two years now - not just from the usual suspects such as allies Japan, the Philippines and Singapore, but from newer friends, too, including Indonesia and Vietnam. The chance for smaller nations to rebalance between the two giants is at times irresistible, and they are constantly looking at issues as leverage. Even Myanmar, for example, has at times sided with its Asean counterparts rather than China on maritime security issues. Across East Asia, some are wondering whether this chorus has been heard loudly enough in Beijing. Given the dominance of Sino-US rivalry across the state media on the mainland, cautionary or questioning voices from East Asia have been conspicuous by their absence. A flurry of diplomacy with Vietnam and the Philippines through much of this year remains, at best, a work in progress. Fundamental differences remain. "When I hear all this talk of US conspiracies, I sometimes wonder whether Beijing's propagandists are missing the point," said one Indonesian envoy, speaking privately recently. "It has been apparent across Southeast Asia that there are issues China needs to address to recapture some of its earlier diplomatic momentum. None of us are in the mood to be patronised or bullied." The coming months are going to be very interesting indeed. Greg Torode is the Post's chief Asia correspondent. greg.torode@scmp.com
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