Holding sway in the Year of the Dragon
South-east Asia and Asean will play a key role in shaping the Asia-Pacific's future with China, India and the United States

Ernest Bower

SOUTH-EAST Asia is central to regional economic and security frameworks that will inform the grand strategy of nations in the coming decades. Can it play this role and sustain its central position?

Achieving this goal presents a major challenge. It must strengthen Asean by realising its goals for economic, political and sociocultural integration. It needs to build on last November's solid effort in Bali that addressed issues from political reform in Myanmar to the nuclear threat of North Korea and disputes in the South China Sea. It will have to address transnational issues such as nuclear proliferation, climate change, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

As Asean addresses its regional role, member countries are undergoing no-thing less than a quiet revolution of voter empowerment. Citizens around the region are asserting themselves, while governments scramble to reform and adapt. The process is a healthy one. Time magazine said last year was the Year of the Protester. In South-east Asia, protesters did not have to use the violence witnessed in the Arab Spring, and their goals were much more focused than those of the Occupy movements in the West. Asean's citizens are converting economic empowerment into political clout - a probable harbinger of things to come in north-east Asia, including China.

This Dragon Year will present South-east Asia's litmus test for China, India and the United States. Where do these powers stand, and who do they want to be in the Asia-Pacific'

For both China and the US, the year will be dominated by internal political transition. China will hold its National Party Congress and the US has already begun the national elections process that will select a president and a significant portion of its legislative branch. These political cycles are generally characterised by a diversion of focus to domestic politics. But in a regional context, both countries need to address the question of who they want to be and what they want.

For India, whose elections will be at the state, not national, level, the same questions are relevant. Is India serious about becoming an Asia-Pacific power? To date, it has attended the meetings and gone through the motions, but it has yet to internalise and focus its engagement.

Who does China want to be

SOUTH-EAST Asia's primary concern over China is to understand what its massive neighbour wants, and who it wants to be. Will this Dragon Year reveal a China guided by late leader Deng Xiaoping's caution to ask 'what should China do'', or a more aggressive nationalist neighbour testing its economic power, asking 'what can China do''

China's actions in the South China Sea and maritime north-east Asia have triggered age-old anxieties in South-east Asia, even to the extent that countries once assumed to be fully under China's influence such as Myanmar have charted new courses to assert sovereignty through political and economic reform. On the other hand, China's economic dynamism and global presence are vital to the region's interests. South-east Asia needs a strong China, but it needs a confident neighbour willing to work together in developing rules and guidelines within the new Asia-Pacific frameworks. By so doing, China will build trust and cham-pion peace and prosperity.

Will the US focus and follow through'

THE region is concerned about whether the US will focus and follow through on its commitments to the Asia-Pacific. Last year, President Barack Obama and his foreign policy and national security teams made a compelling case about the US pivoting towards Asia. He said the region will be the centre point for new economic growth and security concerns in the first part of this century. Asian allies and strategic partners were encouraged by those words, backed up by American leadership in trade with the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations, attending the East Asia Summit for the first time and the first Asean Defence Ministers' Meeting Plus (ADMM+). And there were new basing agreements in Australia, following through with strong and consistent focus on resolving the South China Sea disputes.

While the US' goals and engagement in Asia were impressive last year, Asean and others in the region are anxious about whether the US can sustain this new level of commitment. Most Asian countries have sought a more robust US presence, to help convince a rising China to engage in the collective development of rules around trade and security.

South-east Asia is concerned about the American financial capability to sustain and expand its presence, and whether the political bandwidth can be sustained in an election year.

In the US, politicians in an election year focus almost exclusively on issues that will get them re-elected. Foreign policy, trade and national security issues rarely rank high on that list, and campaign professionals assiduously steer their candidates away from these topics.

This will present a real challenge for the Obama White House to remain focused and follow through on its commitments to Asian engagement. This White House has already demonstrated its sensitivity to foreign travel, potentially alienating its labour base with trade agreements. Alarming new levels of partisanship, coupled with brinksmanship on budgetary issues in Congress, will present additional threats to sustaining American commitment.

Finally, key members of the Obama foreign policy and national security team are likely to leave their posts this year. Losing Asia-focused leaders like Secretary of State Hillary Clinton presents a major challenge for the President.

If the US falters so early on in its self-proclaimed new focus on Asia, allies and partners in the region will be forced to ask questions and explore hedging strategies. This undermines the vast potential for new security partnerships, the growing of trade and investment, and the strengthening of regional architecture.

When will India assert its regional credentials?

INDIA shares land and maritime borders with China and South-east Asia. It shares with China deep and broad linkages to South-east Asia through history, governance, language, religion, culture and DNA. It is a party to nascent regional architecture, including free trade agreements with Asean and other Asia-Pacific countries, membership in the East Asia Summit, ADMM+ and the Asean Regional Forum.

However, India remains the most internally focused of the big three powers engaged in regional frameworks. South-east Asia wants to know when India will assert its regional credentials, and is searching for factors that will motivate it to advance its effort to integrate and participate more intensely. The most likely factors will be an Indian private sector motivated to play a stronger regional and global role and security concerns related to the Indian Ocean.

India should play a stronger leadership role in regional architecture, and supporting political and economic reform in Myanmar would be an ideal entree.

India's nationalist leaders Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru played a critical inspirational role in the independence fight of the then Union of Burma. It has economic, political, security and social interests in seeing a stable and prosperous Myanmar develop on its eastern border. A peaceful Myanmar with a balanced foreign policy, and engaged in economic integration and initiatives linking mainland South-east Asia, China and India together through roads, rail and maritime cooperation, is in India's interest. A reformed Myanmar will strengthen Asean, and a solid foundation for developing regional economic and security cooperation should be a core concern for India.

Myanmar: The breakthrough

THE biggest opportunity for South-east Asia is for Myanmar to emerge from the darkness of five decades of repression and self-exile. Myanmar's progress is important to South-east Asia, for Asean has been dragging the draconian regime around like a ball and chain since it joined in 1997.

Substantial actions have backed up the government's rhetoric, including the release of many political prisoners and reform of laws that restrict the Internet, the media and free association. In addition, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been released from house arrest and she and her party are allowed to run in by-elections planned for early this year.

Myanmar's reforms offer the region a substantial opportunity to strengthen Asean as a foundation for building new regional trade and security architecture, which will encourage China to work with other countries in establishing rules governing trade and security. This will promote regional peace and prosperity, and stave off conflict in areas such as the South China Sea.

Perhaps most importantly, political reform in Myanmar is indicative of a trend of continued empowerment of people across South-east Asia. Should this trend hold, regional governments will be compelled to advance political reforms and strengthen institutions, and accelerate campaigns against corruption. These steps augur well for a just and sustainable governance infrastructure in South-east Asia. Over the coming decade, this trend towards empowerment and governance may have more impact on China than Chinese economic momentum has on South-east Asia.

The Year of the Dragon presents South-east Asia and its partners with important questions. A strengthened Asean is in the interests of all of its members and countries in the Asia-Pacific. The year will reveal who understands this strategic thrust and who is willing to invest in achieving the goal.

The writer is senior adviser and director of the South-east Asia Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Washington.