US, Asean face challenges in new regional landscape
New approaches are needed to manage shifting economic trade winds and political cross-currents in Asia-Pacific

Eul-Soo Pang

IT HAS been a most productive month for US President Barack Obama Enhanced Coverage LinkingBarack Obama -Search using:Biographies Plus NewsNews, Most Recent 60 Daysin constructing his Asia-Pacific strategy. After inviting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement in Honolulu, Mr Obama announced with Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard a fortified alliance, stationing 2,500 US Marines in Darwin along with naval and air force units.

In Bali, he became the first US president to attend the East Asia Summit. Sending US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Myanmar signalled America's intention to normalise ties as that country forges ahead with domestic reconciliation.

Mr Obama's heightened engagement has been well received in Japan and South Korea, but not in China. In South-east Asia, his moves have been welcomed, although some see them as too bold and even provocative. His challenge now is how to take advantage of two concurrent developments: the Asian trade winds burgeoning with commercial and investment opportunities, set against the region's dicey political cross-currents where the United States must manage the rise of China and India, as well as Russia (possibly a decade from now); and the rapidly modernising militaries of Australia, South Korea and Japan.

He should pursue a two-speed, multi-layered trade and security strategy. The US should push for bilaterally comprehensive free trade agreements (FTAs) with developed countries, and simpler, scaled-down bilateral trade agreements (BTAs) with developing states. All Asean states should join the TPP. A collective US-Asean FTA will not be possible as long as Washington insists on a comprehensive, World Trade Organisation-plus agreement.

The two-speed strategy of forging FTAs and BTAs for now and the TPP for later may be what the Obama administration and Asean can live with. The US should offer a BTA to Myanmar so that the budding 'Rangoon Spring' can blossom.

Across the security landscape, the Obama plan in Australia is a prelude to something more imaginative and grander. The US strategy must stay with the current two-tiered approach. It should discard the existing alliances and simply start over. The primary motive for those alliances (with Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand) was for the US to protect them from future Japanese militarism. The 1951 treaty was to aid Japan in preserving domestic peace. The anti-communist part of the scheme was added to the original goal in the Cold War.

These threats are long gone. America's military technology has diminished the value of permanent bases in South Korea and Japan, and the Iraq and Afghanistan legacy has convinced America's adversaries to focus on naval, air, space and cyberspace weaponry. The current security landscape will be altered by Vietnam's rise as Asean's next sterling economic performer, the steady economic growth and democratic consolidation in Indonesia, and Myanmar's opening. The core of Asean built on the five original founding members should be replaced by new architecture. The US should respond creatively to such eventualities.

American public opinion about Mr Obama's Asia-Pacific moves has been muted, mostly because they coincided with the collapse of the congressional debt committee. Former Bush officials in Washington's think-tanks and universities downplayed Mr Obama's feat, citing the prospect of deep defence cuts as a stumbling block.

But this is overblown because Congress and the White House have time to produce mutually acceptable plans before 2013 when the automatic cuts will be triggered. No candidates up for re-election next November will want to face voters without plans to reduce the debt, bolster defence preparedness and enhance entitlement programmes. It is hard to believe a US$14 trillion (S$18 trillion) economy cannot afford both international commitments and entitlements at home.

In South-east Asia, responses to Mr Obama's plan are mostly positive. Many wished he had highlighted the economic initiatives more and downplayed the security posturing to avoid provoking China. And this is exactly where the region's economic trade winds and political cross-currents set up a dilemma: Asean wants continued access to the China market but it also wants the US security blanket to remain in place.

For decades, Asean governments, the media and academics have deplored America's lack of 'staying power' in the region. Yet now that Mr Obama is correcting this shortcoming, Asean opinion is unsure about the new level of engagement.

An Indian journalist has warned that the return of the US military to the region could pose a direct threat to Indonesia, to which Mr Obama has just sold a fleet of upgraded F-16s. Boeing has also recently sold 230 passenger jetliners to Indonesia.

At a recent regional security workshop here, Thai and Filipino participants argued that Mr Obama was making a mistake by putting the economic cart before the security horse. They are obviously worried about China. Meanwhile, at Asean's security issues forum in Hanoi, the Indonesian Foreign Minister complained that Mr Obama failed to consult Jakarta about his security initiative.

Mr William Cohen, the Clinton-era secretary of defence and former Republican senator, captured the American mood well: His counterparts throughout the Asean states used to tell him that 'we would like to see more of you, but not in our backyard. We would like to see more military exercises take place, but do them with some other countries'. He thinks Asean must be more candid with both China and the US and show more 'willingness to measure up to (its) responsibilities'.

A metaphorical climate change of shifting economic trade winds and political cross-currents in the Asia-Pacific region is now in full swing and can no more be ignored than the actual climate change the planet is experiencing. Asean must acknowledge the magnitude of these changes and devise an imaginative approach to navigating and accommodating the altered realities that the new US initiatives are bringing to the region.

The writer is visiting professorial fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.