China's move impacts on Manila politics

Bruce Gale, Senior Writer

WAS it a case of bullying or normal diplomatic conduct? Many Philippine politicians feared the worst last week when news reached Manila that Beijing had dispatched its most modern patrol ship to reinforce China's assertion of sovereignty in the South China Sea. But the reaction in Manila revealed more about the nation's acute sense of vulnerability than China's hostile intentions.

China's move came just days after Beijing protested against President Gloria Arroyo's decision to sign into law a controversial Bill defining the nation's maritime boundaries. Known as the baselines law, the legislation included areas claimed by China in the disputed Spratly Islands and the Scarborough Shoal.

The Spratlys, believed to be rich in oil, gas and fish, consist of about 100 low- lying barren islets, reefs and atolls strategically positioned across one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. They are also claimed in part by Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei.

The Philippine Congress passed the baselines Bill last month in order to beat the May 2009 deadline of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea for member nations to define their territorial waters.

Initial concern over the threat posed to Philippine territorial integrity by Chinese naval operations cut across the political spectrum. Senator Francis Escudero, a member of the Genuine Opposition, described it as 'gunboat diplomacy'. And National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales said: 'The deployment of the patrol ship...should remind us that even in this era of dialogue and understanding, there will always be nations that threaten perceived weak nations like us'. The Philippines, he added, might seek help from the United States and Asean.

Manila's military weakness is well-known. Former navy vice-commander Amable Tolentino acknowledged last year that the country's military was inferior to that of other claimant countries. The flagship of the Philippine Navy is an escort destroyer commissioned in 1943.

Statements by Philippine observers, however, were more measured. As Philippine press secretary Cerge Remonde later acknowledged, the tone of the initial Chinese protest was no more serious than what Manila would have issued if China or other claimants to the disputed region had passed similar legislation.

And by giving prior notification of the deployment, officials admitted that China had remained true to its obligations under the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.

Beijing was not browbeating Manila. Rather, it was responding to a United States military build-up in the region after an incident on March 8, when one of Washington's surveillance vessels was reportedly harassed by the Chinese navy off Hainan island.

Indeed, the more immediate importance for the Philippines of recent developments in the South China Sea lay not in its geopolitical significance, but in its impact on local politics.

By underscoring Manila's sense of helplessness in the face of the challenge posed by an increasingly modern Chinese navy, the reaction of the nation's political elite made it easier for President Arroyo to reaffirm her support for the longstanding US-Philippine alliance.

In a telephone conversation with US President Barack Obama, for example, Ms Arroyo was reported to have expressed support for the Visiting Forces Agreement - a controversial bilateral pact that governs the conduct of US forces in the country. The Philippine government has been forced to defend the treaty in recent weeks as anger simmers over the US embassy's refusal to hand over a marine convicted of raping a Filipino woman.

And by focusing attention on Beijing's reaction to Mrs Arroyo's decision to sign the Bill restating Manila's territorial claims, local politicians have helped burnish the President's nationalist credentials.

Last year, opposition legislators accused her of undermining the country's claim to the Spratlys by entering into a tripartite marine agreement on the area with China and Vietnam.

Another possible reaction to last week's developments - a reinvigoration of military modernisation efforts - is more problematic. Serious tensions between China and the Philippines in the mid-1990s prompted the Philippine Congress to authorise a modernisation programme. But the focus of that modest - and allegedly corruption-riddled - programme has been on repair and refurbishment rather than the purchase of new equipment.

Getting that to change will require a much greater threat than that posed by a single Chinese patrol vessel.