China undercuts message about its peaceful rise

The Foreign Ministry says China has the best of relations with its neighbours. Certainly, economic ties grow closer by the day. But a sustained military build-up at a time when long-standing border and territorial disputes remain unresolved gives rise to suspicion in the region about China's motives.

Vietnam's just-sealed deal with Russia to buy six submarines for US$2 billion makes the concern plain. The decision comes on the back of a region-wide investment in submarines, in part a response to China's growing naval power. Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, Japan, South Korea and India all intend to become potent underwater powers. A defence white paper issued by Australia this year said China could pose a military threat in the future. Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew echoed the sentiment during a visit to the US in October, contending that a lack of transparency by Beijing necessitated a continued American presence in the region.

China repeatedly stresses it is striving to be as open and honest as possible about its military developments and purchases. There is no doubt that transparency has increased, but there is also considerable room for improvement. Until there is an appreciable shift, the doubts will, increasingly, fuel a regional arms race.

Western governments, and especially Washington, hold themselves up as models of military transparency. They make known where aircraft and ships are based and announce details of movements. Budgets are lengthy documents, with expenditure and planned spending laid out in great depth. Weapons programmes and strategies are debated in parliaments and analysed in the media. For all the frankness, though, national security also entails considerable secrecy. No modern military, even in the most open society, is truly transparent. Secrecy about capabilities and intentions preserves the advantage of surprise and potential for deception. These are crucial advantages in warfare, and strategies deeply entrenched in Chinese military thinking.

As some of China's neighbours see it, the problem is that the gap between what is and is not revealed is too wide. Defence spending is estimated to be two or three times - perhaps more - what is stated. Secrecy shrouds the development of cutting-edge military hardware the world over, but in Beijing's case, what scientists and engineers are working on cannot even be guessed at.

Chinese officials have stated the need for the nation to have an aircraft carrier for defensive purposes. Such a ship is as much about defence as projection of power and extending influence. Submarines, which China is building at an undisclosed rate, tick the same boxes. All nations are entitled to such capabilities, but when they speak of defence and also have conflicting territorial claims it is hardly surprising that neighbours are worried. These worries could translate into higher regional defence spending. Alliances with the US are being hardened in the name of a balance of power against China's rise. Some strategic analysts fear a new cold war.

China's rise, like the ascent of any great power, was bound to prompt other governments to reassess strategy. Diplomats are well aware of the challenges and have vastly improved the channels of communication with other nations. Beijing has made great strides in being more open and transparent about its military. Clearly though, the message is not persuasive. More work needs to be done to reassure the region that this rise will indeed be peaceful. That could start at home with more open discussion and debate about the nation's military priorities.