Russia looks east to S-E Asia

Shefali Rekhi, Straits Times Foreign Desk

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, 44, is a man for change.

In the second year of his tenure as head of state, he has been moving steadily to hasten the process initiated by his predecessor, former Russian president Vladimir Putin, who is now Prime Minister.

Under Mr Putin, Moscow has reclaimed some of the greatness it lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union. And the Kremlin is emerging as much more powerful, as an economy left shattered nearly two decades ago now shows signs of stability.

Now Mr Medvedev, who worked with Mr Putin for more than 15 years, is moving to leave his own imprint. Signs are emerging, observers say, of a greater role for Asia, particularly South-east Asia, in his plan, with the economy his immediate concern.

Sharing his thoughts in an online article published in September, titled Forward Russia, the youthful leader noted that Russia had fallen way behind other countries economically due to its over-reliance on the export of natural resources.

Old Soviet attitudes that impeded progress had to go. Modernity, hi-tech and innovation needed to be the buzz words, he remarked.

Singapore observers saw first-hand Mr Medvedev's eagerness to learn when he attended the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit earlier this month and filed a mock online application to start a Russian restaurant, to study the Republic's electronic efficiency.

A new high-level panel will also be set up to explore further ties between Moscow and Singapore, which have grown rapidly in recent years.

According to Ambassador Michael Tay, executive director of the Russia-Singapore Business Organising Council and the Apec secretariat, Singapore is in a position to be a business hub for Russian companies.

Speaking to The Sunday Times in a phone interview from Moscow, he said interest in trade between Russia and South-east Asia is growing, noting that many companies attended recent discussions in Singapore.

Besides, nearly two-thirds of Russia's land area are in Asia, and Moscow 'has a heart that beats like Asia', he noted, adding that its values of friendship, hospitality and connections are very similar to those of Asia.

Indeed Moscow's tie-ups in South-east Asia have been increasing in recent years.

Its trade with Vietnam, along with that with Singapore, has grown at significant rates.

Two years ago, Russia signed a significant defence agreement with Indonesia. As part of the pact, Moscow offered submarines, tanks and helicopters at generous lines of credit. Russia also signed a space exploration agreement with Malaysia, which led to a Malaysian astronaut going to space.

Russia's then-Minister of Economic Development and Trade German Gref had said that trade between Russia and South-east Asia was at one-third of its potential.

And he saw no reason why this should not be increased, adding that energy could be a key area for further cooperation - while Russia has the world's largest energy reserves, South-east Asia's needs are set to grow.

'For a number of years, Russia looked to the West, yet it did not meet with enthusiasm,' said Ambassador Tay.

'But now, it is Asia's time. Asia is truly on the rise - you can see this in its pace of growth, its consumers and the (limited) impact of the global financial crisis. So, like others, Russia too is looking at Asia.'

Others say Russia is also being drawn to this region because of changing regional dynamics, in which China seems to have a greater influence and the United States wants to get more 'engaged'.

China's soft power approach towards South-east Asian economies has included investment in economic and infrastructure development projects, the granting of low- interest loans, and the training of government officials, all of which have moved Beijing closer to its South-east Asian neighbours.

Meanwhile, Washington recently signalled its intent to be more 'engaged' in the region - with the most recent instance of this being its change in approach in engaging Myanmar, after conceding that sanctions had not worked.

As Dr Ooi Keat Gin, professor of modern history at Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, told The Sunday Times, Russia wants a piece of the pie too.

Everyone realises the growing importance of South-east Asia. Besides, changes such as that in Myanmar, which is opening up, cannot be ignored. 'Myanmar is very rich and underexploited. If it really opens up, the nation will be even richer than Vietnam,' he said.

Thailand-based independent researcher Paradorn Rangsimaporn, who studies Russia's role in this region, said Moscow hopes to make use of Asia's dynamism to develop its own territories in the far east.

One such area that could benefit would be Vladivostok, which is strategically attractive - being close to China, Japan and the US - but has attracted little foreign investment. The city, has been earmarked to be the venue for the 2012 Apec summit.

Besides, he said, Asean is playing a leading role in East Asian regionalism, and securing the regional grouping's acceptance of Russian participation in regional institutions will be crucial for Moscow.

Yet, observers make the point that today, Japan has a greater say in this region than Russia and a limiting factor to Moscow's further engagement could well be the issue that President Medvedev has set out to address - the state of Russia's economy, its corruption and red tape.

As Dr Paradorn said: 'Russia must be able to bring something to the Asia-Pacific table' to contribute to the region's dynamism.

The Apec summit in Vladivostok will be a test.

'If this goes well and benefits both sides, then Russia's future in the region may look somewhat rosier.'