US submarine patrols step up game of cat and mouse in Pacific

Greg Torode

A port in Maine on America's North Atlantic coast may seem a long way from China.

But this is where a 24-year-old submarine is reportedly being refitted, and when the 20-month job is complete, the USS Oklahoma City will be one of the most advanced US attack submarines, able silently to hunt and sink enemy submarines and ships as well as conduct a wide range of surveillance and espionage operations.

Once ready, the Oklahoma City will head to its new home port on the island of Guam in the western Pacific - one of the last links in a strategic shift in focus from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean that will see 60 per cent of the US submarine fleet active in the Asia-Pacific region.

The Oklahoma City will be among the last of 31 of America's 53 fast-attack submarines to move to the region - a reversal in cold-war priorities where such vessels had once protected the US coast from large Soviet submarines packed with missiles targeted at US cities. Its planned move to Guam was announced last week in a little-noticed release from the US Pacific Command.

Rear Admiral Douglas McAneny, commander of the Pacific Fleet's submarines, said shifting the Oklahoma City ensured "that our most technologically advanced submarines are forward, so we maintain our ability to dominate the sea base and shape potential adversaries".

China was not specifically mentioned but, across the Asia-Pacific region, there is little doubt about what McAneny's reference to "forward" really means.

His use of such phrases as "dominating the sea base" and to "shape potential adversaries" can be seen as deliberately vague naval speak for what is in fact a clear statement of intent - that Washington fully intends to keep asserting its rights as the region's pre-eminent military power while operating a clear deterrence against any state that wants to challenge that authority.

William Murray, associate research professor at the US Naval War College, said the significance of the deployment to Guam and the statement would not be lost on Beijing.

"They are very much aware that the US is determined to keep doing what it's been doing, and I think it can also be seen as reassurance to Japan and other allies concerned at China's modernisation," he said. Guam, due east of Manila, is the closest submarine base on US territory to the China coast, completing a chain including bases on the US mainland and Pearl Harbour in Hawaii.

Together with two other Los Angeles-class fast-attack submarines on Guam, the Oklahoma City will be within easy reach of the South China Sea and Hainan Island, where Beijing's attack and larger nuclear ballistic-missile submarines are expected to be based in increasing numbers as part of its accelerating military modernisation.

Tracking those new Chinese submarines and recording their sonar "signatures" would be a priority for the US and its allies, including Japan, South Korea and Australia, military analysts and diplomats said. They must also track China's expanding surface fleet. While far smaller than the US naval assets in the Pacific, Beijing's fleet is equipped with anti-ship cruise missiles that may pose a threat to large US deployments.

Murray, a former US naval submariner, said the work of a Los Angeles-class submarine was not just about rival subs, but being in a position to stop enemy vessels from attacking surface fleets with torpedoes and anti-ship missiles.

The games of cat-and-mouse are highly complex and sensitive work, both militarily and diplomatically. This year, Chinese civilian vessels attempted to block the passage of a US research vessel, the USNS Impeccable, as it surveyed waters between Hainan and Vietnam.

Firm and repeated diplomatic protests from Beijing about military surveillance work in the South China Sea - which it now formally regards as its exclusive economic zone - have been met by Washington's insistence that such work is entirely within international law and will continue.

Veteran South China Sea watcher Professor Carl Thayer, a scholar at the Australian Defence Force Academy, warned that the Sanya naval base had strategic implications for the balance of power in the region, despite US strength. He said five more Chinese nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed ballistic-missile subs could be operational next year.

Recent incidents have "reawakened concerns" about regional stability amid Sino-US strategic manoeuvring. "The rapid expansion of China's naval forces had precipitated greater scrutiny from the US military and submarine operations out of Sanya," Thayer wrote this month.

"As China's submarine fleet grows, so too will US interest," he said, noting that to operate its growing fleet properly, China would have to gather the same oceanographic and military information that Beijing objects to the US doing.

"Future incidents at sea cannot be ruled out as long as China attempts to override the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea with its own unilateral interpretation of international law."

US military officials have described more frequent encounters and repeatedly called for the creation of mutually agreed rules of engagement to limit the risk of miscalculation. China has yet to show any firm interest in such a deal.

"The stakes are certainly higher now for hotheads," Murray said. "But I do think there are calm heads on both sides. There may be a lot of statements and posturing, but there are avenues for all to be resolved peacefully through diplomacy."